A .350 Average In Baseball
Written on April 04, 2012

A .350 Average In Baseball

A .350 average in baseball gets you to the hall of fame, BUT…

You’ve often heard us suggest avoidance of stock in market predictions, forecasts, and prognostications.   But what if there was a 50/50 chance at predicting correctly? Wall Street Economists had these odds when asked to forecast the direction (simply up or down) of short-term interest rates from 1982 to 2010.

The result?  The experts were wrong 37 out of 57 time periods (6 month intervals).  That’s almost 65% of the time!

This is further confirmation that the future performance of markets, interest rates, real estate, you name it, cannot be known.  We continue to encourage clients to view markets and performance with a 5 year+ perspective. Again, disregard all short-term forecasts and focus on longer-term objectives.




“Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy or the stock market.  Dismiss
all such forecasts and concentrate on what is actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.”

Peter Lynch, Legendary Manager of Fidelity Magellan Fund in its heyday (1977-1990).

All information is believed to be from reliable sources however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.  All economic and performance information is historical and not indicative of future results. Any market indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.  Additional information, including management fees and expenses, is provided on our Form ADV Part 2. All investments involve risk and past performance is not a guarantee of future results.